With all the conflicting news stories, what is really happening in the real estate market? Using industry reports and years of experience, Denia provides an in-depth review of the current market and provides some industry updates on what may be in the future. |
Overview
With many years of experience in the industry, Denia provided both an overview and insight of the current market data. Due to the government shutdown, most data was mainly from the 2nd Quarter of 2025. She gave analysis in the areas of consumer debt, housing appreciation and foreclosure activity.
Consumer Expectation/Debt Situation
Consumer expectations survey reveals household financials have deteriorated, and larger share of consumers report they are worse off than a year ago and expect not to be any better off a year from now. They also expect the unemployment rate will be higher in the year to come. Consumer expectations for credit access are also down while they believe credit will be more difficult to obtain. Credit card use is on the rise and being used to bridge the gaps but are also increasing for serious delinquency. Consumers are increasingly utilizing ‘By Now, Pay Later’ (BNPL) but the what the consumer values by using this method remain unclear as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in October.
Consumer Balance Changes (by Category)
- Mortgages – UP $131B
- Heloc – Up $9B (Totaling $411B)
- Credit Card – Up $27B (Total $1.2 T and 5.87% higher Y/Y)
- Student Loan – Up $7B (Totaling $1.64T)
- Note: Delinquent student loan debt not reported between Q2 2020 and Q4 2024 are now showing on credit reports.
- Non-Housing – Up $45B (Up .9% from Q1)
Home Price Appreciation
While home appreciation continues to increase, appreciation growth is slowing. This trend is more focused on larger cities and some are starting to see decreases, especially in Florida.
Foreclosures
Department of HUD/FHA reveals reasons for delinquencies as an increase in unemployment which equates to reduction of income while having excessive obligations paired with impacts of illness and death account for 71.8% of severe delinquencies of FHA mortgages. Foreclosures are trending higher as the banks start foreclosure filings on the delinquencies they have let slide which are well past due. As reported by ATTOM, bank repossessions have increased 33% from a year ago.
Summary
Denia highlighted the fact Debt is on the rise and has reached a total household debt of $18.39 trillion. The Debt increase reflects higher credit card debt by 5.87% year-over-year, student loans up by $7 billion, and Mortgage balances are now at $131 Billion. Housing price changes are still up for the past year although there is a moderate deceleration being less than the previous year. The 10-year appreciation for the large metro areas is on average 125% and higher. FHA market share of mortgages is 16.5% and out of those 57% are seriously delinquent (90+ days delinquent).
Presenter-Denia Ray
With over three decades of SFR, multifamily, and commercial industry experience, including ramping up the nation’s first nationwide, centralized SFR solution in 2009, and 20+ years as a prime HUD contractor with mortgagee compliance, field services, and REO asset, management accountability, Denia Ray is a proven executive leader with a collaborative leadership style and an entrepreneurial philosophy who inspires continuous improvement and a culture of quality while driving results. Her broad rea estate industry knowledge gives her the ability to synthesize market and customer insights to drive performance, bring new solutions to the market and continuously deliver a rolling strategic solutions roadmap.
|
Connect with Peak Note Why not set up a meeting with a Peak Notes specialist to discuss this exciting presentation from Note Expo 25! Meetings are brief, cost nothing and can give you more insight into how you can maximize your investment potential! If your property is located in Florida, please click on this link and set up a meeting with John (https://peaknotes.zohobookings.com/#/talkaboutyournote). If your property is located outside of Florida, please click on this link and set up a meeting with Karen (https://calendly.com/karenw-peak-notes/30Min). |